MySolver™ Apps

Not a member yet?

Click here to 

Evaluate icon

Pre-Mortem Analysis

Assessment of how a plan, judgment, or decision could go spectacularly wrong.


Hindsight

Pre-Mortem Analysis is a systematic assessment of how a plan, judgment, or decision could go spectacularly wrong. This hindsight approach helps identify potential problems early on.


To perform a Pre-Mortem Analysis:

Step 1:  Begin with the premise that your plan has failed spectacularly.

Step 2:  Write down every reason you can think of for the failure. Use the Negative Brainstorming tool to find new reasons.

Step 3:  Ask each member of the Brainstorming group to read one of their reasons, even if it’s politically impolite.

Step 4:  Continue until all reasons have been recorded.

Step 5:  Review the reasons and look for ways to strengthen your plan.



Publications icon

Sources:

Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, Gary Klein, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998.

Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques, Randolph H. Pherson, Reston, VA: Pherson Associates, 2008.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, Richards Heuer, Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson, Washington DC: CQ Press, 2011.